STORY TIME: The predictability of unpredictable wars:-

Before I started learning Data Science I was an undergrad of Political Science which I got into specifically because I loved geopolitics and later on I figured that it was the worse decision I had made because I was drudging through waist high river of absolutely nothing new and outdated ideas. They do not make sense in our currently constantly changing world. I got into college in 2021 and in 2022 Feb 24 Russia had attacked Ukraine.

But let us rewind for a bit because I want you all to understand what happened because nearly ALL the major news outlets were publishing articles after articles with multiple analysts and security experts all kept saying that there are apparently multiple reasons why Russia will not attack Ukraine:

1. An invasion of Ukraine will not be useful for Russia since it can not acquire an easy win (that philosophy is not in Russian military they would actually rather keep fighting for years turning their vast country into ammo making machine and in the meanwhile ensure the opponent is "vanquished" rather do short strikes like USA).
2. One rather great article that aged like milk is this one: "A closer examination of Russia’s geopolitical behaviour in the past two decades, however, demonstrates that its officials might not necessarily be trying to deceive the international community. A full-scale war in Ukraine does not really fit into how the Kremlin has used hard power in its geopolitical games. The examples of Georgia, Syria, Libya, and (so far) Ukraine, show that it pursues a cost-efficient policy." https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/9/no-russia-will-not-invade-ukraine
3. Another one: "Regardless of the rationale for Russia’s recent actions, Putin is not about to give the green light for the Russian army to invade Ukraine. Suggestions to the contrary from Western officials are unhelpful and only deteriorate the already tense relations." https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/11/20/russia-will-not-invade-ukraine/
4. Yet another one: "there are reasons to believe that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine might not happen. Here are some of them." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60468264

These are only few amongst many such articles big name media houses had published. Now obviously I am not saying that all of them have a crystal ball which they can use to see the future however I am here to tell you instead how I predicted that Russia will definitely invade Ukraine and why the reasons presented by these news articles are useless.

War is brutal, it is supposed to be, war is people and their ideologies, their faith and what they believe in dictate war for the most part. Therefore just like it takes a lifetime and then some to understand a person so does it take years to understand war. The strategies might remain the same, maybe even turn back to older strategies or many new strategies will emerge, etc.

I went off topic again..

Look, cutting it clear here, Russia HAD to attack Ukraine from the very start. And there are multiple reasons why and they were quite literally staring at all the analysts and no it's not because Russia or Vladimir Putin has gone insane.

From a geopolitical perspective it was a "gone case" from the very day Ukraine and Russia started appearing in the news cycle. Russia believes it has been back-stabbed by the USA and the NATO again and again and again. Since the cold war throughout Gorbachev and even now. Russia could not allow Ukraine to be subsumed into NATO which would mean it will be bordering ANOTHER NATO country which would be insane for it to accept because USA likes to sit in the bases they make in NATO countries.

Russia also needed Crimea and Donbas areas so there are few reasons too. There was an issue with water shortage there but I would like to assume maybe it could have been solved easily but yeah.

Countries such as USA, Russia, China, etc they often take certain measures to redirect public eyes from their actual intentions these are obvious tactics such as obfuscation, redirection, denial, repetition of old statements, morphing of old statements to fit the current environment etc.

Russia did not "lie" when they said they will not invade Ukraine, technically they have kept their words. They are treating the current war as a "special operation" and even though their own officials sometimes say they are in a "war" by slip of the tongue the official standpoint is that it is just a special operation. These are the word games being played by Russia and do not worry, other countries does the same. The most easiest red flag was when Russia said they are gonna do joint exercise with Belarus which was actually a ruse (pun intended) to enter Ukraine instead.

I had predicted they will attack Ukraine when they said they are gonna go and do military exercise with Ukraine. That was for me personally as clear as a sign as it can get.

I can even predict another one. Iran will see some kind of an action by the US military soon. No matter how much the "internal sources" would like you to assume that efforts are being made, they are all going nowhere. Let me lay it out again, Iran is now ready to give up it's enriched nuclear stockpile it claims it has of. Fine enough, however Israel has informed USA to ask Iran to remove their ballistic missile capabilities too which is a clear red line of negotiation for Iran. Iran knows it will be defenseless more than it is anyways currently if ballistic missiles are let go of too, Israel too knows that ballistic missiles are a red line for Iran and so they are by default making a volatile atmosphere of uncertainty. Israeli advisors and US advisors are constantly moving back and forth. USA wants to progress talks only regarding the enriched Uranium but Israel wants to add ballistic missiles too. Failing the talks would be "USA has depleted all of it's diplomatic options" and so they hold the right to use force again.

The countries are not easy to predict all the time. But they are easy to predict most of the time. I do not own a crystal ball too. But do not fall for the "nothing happens" narrative either. Maybe you guys will get more stuff like this in the future. And if you, the reader have reached this very end then much love and hope your day goes great.